Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-05-29

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country

Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-05-19) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection

Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-05-19 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases

Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-19 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases

Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-19 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions

Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-19 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-19 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-19)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-19) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.

Country	New confirmed cases by infection date	Expected change in daily cases	Effective reproduction no.	Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan	667 (602 – 738)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	14 (10 – 21)
Algeria	187 (162 – 211)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	740 (23 – -26)
Argentina	700 (637 – 763)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.4)	11 (8.4 – 16)
Armenia	356 (324 – 394)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	21 (12 – 66)
Australia	13 (6 – 21)	Unsure	1.1 (0.6 – 1.5)	180 (5.3 – -5.7)
Austria	36 (22 – 45)	Unsure	0.9 (0.7 – 1.2)	-35 (16 – -8.4)
Azerbaijan	139 (116 – 157)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.2)	50 (15 – -36)
Bahrain	241 (205 – 269)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-41 (83 – -16)
Bangladesh	1745 (1609 – 1861)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	22 (16 – 34)
Belarus	1001 (911 – 1086)	Increasing	1 (1 – 1.1)	59 (28 – -580)
Belgium	239 (206 – 269)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-50 (60 – -17)
Benin	19 (8 – 29)	Increasing	1.6 (0.9 – 2.2)	4 (2.3 – 16)
Bolivia	430 (395 – 469)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	14 (10 – 26)
Bosnia and Herzegovina	16 (7 – 24)	Unsure	0.9 (0.6 – 1.3)	-30 (8.9 – -5.6)
Brazil	18263 (17230 – 19309)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	25 (20 – 31)
Bulgaria	24 (13 – 32)	Likely decreasing	0.8 (0.6 – 1.1)	-13 (29 – -5.3)
Cameroon	219 (185 – 251)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.2)	26 (12 – -110)
Canada	1112 (1024 – 1194)	Unsure	1 (1 – 1.1)	190 (43 – -80)
Central African Republic	45 (30 – 57)	Likely increasing	1.2 (0.9 – 1.4)	18 (6.7 – -25)
Chad	25 (13 – 34)	Unsure	1 (0.7 – 1.3)	-72 (9.2 – -7.6)
Chile	4420 (4102 – 4766)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	14 (12 – 17)
China	6 (1 – 10)	Unsure	1.1 (0.5 – 1.6)	-280 (4.3 – -4.2)
Colombia	1004 (904 – 1107)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	16 (12 – 23)
Cote dIvoire	53 (37 – 64)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	26 (8.4 – -23)
Croatia	8 (1 – 16)	Unsure	1.2 (0.4 – 2.1)	12 (2.5 – -4.3)
Cuba	14 (6 – 22)	Unsure	1.1 (0.6 – 1.5)	30 (4.9 – -7.2)
Czechia	56 (39 – 70)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.2)	-68 (16 – -11)
Democratic Republic of the Congo	124 (101 – 143)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	23 (10 – -110)
Denmark	56 (42 – 70)	Unsure	0.9 (0.8 – 1.1)	-87 (16 – -11)
Djibouti	119 (99 – 139)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	41 (12 – -26)
Dominican Republic	360 (311 – 405)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	45 (18 – -90)
Ecuador	510 (457 – 559)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1)	-45 (190 – -21)
Egypt	835 (760 – 919)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	16 (12 – 25)
El Salvador	77 (57 – 94)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.2)	53 (12 – -21)
Equatorial Guinea	61 (45 – 74)	Likely increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.5)	13 (6.4 – -390)
Estonia	10 (4 – 16)	Unsure	1.2 (0.7 – 1.7)	16 (3.7 – -7.1)
Ethiopia	57 (39 – 74)	Increasing	1.4 (1.1 – 1.7)	8.1 (4.6 – 31)
Finland	36 (24 – 46)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.7 – 1.1)	-22 (20 – -7.2)
France	294 (256 – 327)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 0.9)	-21 (-63 – -13)
Gabon	113 (90 – 131)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	20 (9.3 – -140)
Germany	459 (418 – 505)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-28 (-91 – -16)
Ghana	154 (129 – 175)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	37 (14 – -52)
Greece	10 (3 – 16)	Unsure	1 (0.5 – 1.5)	-81 (5.2 – -4.6)
Guatemala	263 (231 – 296)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	14 (8.7 – 34)
Guinea	74 (56 – 89)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.1)	-110 (17 – -13)
Guinea Bissau	26 (9 – 41)	Unsure	0.9 (0.6 – 1.3)	-56 (7.9 – -6.2)
Haiti	102 (80 – 119)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	15 (7.8 – 100)
Honduras	223 (196 – 249)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.3)	15 (9.2 – 47)
Hungary	27 (15 – 36)	Unsure	0.9 (0.7 – 1.1)	-22 (16 – -6.5)
Iceland	7 (0 – 16)	Likely increasing	2.5 (0.3 – 4.5)	2.4 (0.99 – -4.6)
India	7032 (6560 – 7548)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	18 (16 – 22)
Indonesia	679 (619 – 738)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	31 (18 – 110)
Iran	2224 (2054 – 2359)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	50 (30 – 140)
Iraq	209 (181 – 232)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.4)	12 (7.7 – 26)
Ireland	71 (53 – 86)	Likely decreasing	0.8 (0.7 – 1)	-16 (80 – -7.4)
Israel	22 (12 – 30)	Unsure	1.1 (0.7 – 1.5)	17 (5.2 – -13)
Italy	568 (516 – 620)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-32 (-140 – -18)
Japan	32 (21 – 41)	Likely decreasing	0.8 (0.6 – 1)	-18 (28 – -6.7)
Kazakhstan	327 (287 – 354)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	40 (17 – -120)
Kenya	66 (49 – 80)	Likely increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	19 (7.9 – -49)
Kosovo	11 (3 – 18)	Unsure	1.1 (0.7 – 1.6)	43 (4.7 – -5.9)
Kuwait	842 (773 – 904)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1)	-100 (100 – -35)
Kyrgyzstan	45 (31 – 56)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.4)	23 (7.4 – -23)
Latvia	9 (2 – 16)	Unsure	1.1 (0.5 – 1.6)	91 (4.1 – -4.5)
Lebanon	25 (13 – 34)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.4)	31 (6.7 – -12)
Lithuania	13 (6 – 21)	Unsure	1.1 (0.6 – 1.5)	42 (5 – -6.6)
Luxembourg	7 (1 – 13)	Unsure	1 (0.5 – 1.5)	-26 (5.3 – -3.7)
Madagascar	38 (24 – 50)	Likely increasing	1.2 (0.9 – 1.5)	16 (6.1 – -26)
Malaysia	105 (75 – 129)	Increasing	1.4 (1.1 – 1.6)	7.3 (4.8 – 15)
Maldives	43 (29 – 57)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.3)	29 (7.6 – -17)
Mexico	3267 (2984 – 3485)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	18 (15 – 24)
Moldova	143 (119 – 162)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-71 (33 – -17)
Mongolia	6 (1 – 11)	Unsure	1.1 (0.3 – 2)	-28 (3 – -2.4)
Morocco	68 (48 – 85)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.7 – 1)	-22 (43 – -8.6)
Nepal	69 (51 – 82)	Increasing	1.3 (1.1 – 1.5)	10 (5.9 – 43)
Netherlands	198 (168 – 226)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.2)	37 (15 – -60)
New Zealand	7 (0 – 15)	Likely increasing	2.1 (0.6 – 3.6)	3.2 (1.3 – -6.5)
Niger	10 (1 – 17)	Unsure	1.1 (0.5 – 1.7)	36 (3.6 – -4.7)
Nigeria	292 (257 – 320)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	48 (18 – -78)
North Macedonia	28 (15 – 37)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.4)	72 (8 – -9.5)
Norway	20 (10 – 29)	Unsure	1.1 (0.7 – 1.5)	25 (5.5 – -9.9)
Oman	314 (277 – 347)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	160 (24 – -34)
Pakistan	1957 (1844 – 2090)	Likely increasing	1 (1 – 1.1)	56 (31 – 290)
Palestine	6 (0 – 11)	Unsure	1.1 (0.5 – 1.7)	62 (3.8 – -4.5)
Panama	276 (233 – 313)	Increasing	1.3 (1.1 – 1.4)	10 (7.3 – 18)
Paraguay	12 (4 – 18)	Unsure	1 (0.6 – 1.4)	-190 (5.7 – -5.4)
Peru	5009 (4622 – 5463)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	21 (17 – 28)
Philippines	296 (250 – 338)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	19 (11 – 60)
Poland	422 (378 – 471)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	30 (16 – 220)
Portugal	246 (212 – 278)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	44 (17 – -73)
Puerto Rico	77 (59 – 92)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.2)	100 (13 – -18)
Qatar	1816 (1662 – 1955)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.1)	28 (20 – 49)
Romania	189 (160 – 217)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	150 (20 – -27)
Russia	9504 (8929 – 10106)	Increasing	1 (1 – 1.1)	100 (52 – -4400)
Saudi Arabia	2423 (2273 – 2572)	Unsure	1 (1 – 1.1)	-2500 (85 – -79)
Senegal	74 (58 – 90)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1.1)	-47 (25 – -12)
Serbia	64 (48 – 77)	Unsure	0.9 (0.8 – 1.1)	-43 (21 – -11)
Sierra Leone	36 (22 – 47)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.4)	19 (6.3 – -20)
Singapore	533 (484 – 583)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	640 (35 – -39)
Slovakia	7 (0 – 14)	Unsure	1.4 (0.5 – 2.4)	8.2 (2.1 – -4.4)
Somalia	32 (20 – 44)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.7 – 1.1)	-19 (19 – -6.3)
South Africa	1205 (1103 – 1313)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	19 (14 – 29)
South Korea	37 (24 – 48)	Likely increasing	1.3 (1 – 1.6)	9.2 (4.6 – -1600)
South Sudan	85 (66 – 100)	Increasing	1.5 (1.2 – 1.8)	5.4 (3.7 – 9.4)
Spain	650 (591 – 706)	Unsure	1 (1 – 1.1)	36 (19 – 250)
Sri Lanka	74 (56 – 90)	Increasing	1.5 (1.2 – 1.8)	5.5 (3.8 – 10)
Sudan	173 (145 – 196)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-970 (22 – -21)
Sweden	542 (487 – 594)	Likely increasing	1 (1 – 1.1)	50 (22 – -180)
Switzerland	16 (8 – 23)	Likely decreasing	0.8 (0.5 – 1)	-9.4 (56 – -4.3)
Tajikistan	218 (188 – 245)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.3)	19 (11 – 99)
Thailand	5 (0 – 9)	Unsure	1.4 (0.5 – 2.3)	7.4 (2.1 – -5.2)
Tunisia	6 (0 – 12)	Likely increasing	1.6 (0.5 – 2.7)	5 (1.8 – -5.5)
Turkey	927 (854 – 997)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 0.9)	-20 (-35 – -14)
Ukraine	336 (296 – 372)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.9 – 1)	-42 (170 – -19)
United Arab Emirates	912 (840 – 995)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	40 (23 – 180)
United Kingdom	2772 (2578 – 3018)	Unsure	1 (1 – 1.1)	180 (35 – -54)
United Republic of Tanzania	8 (2 – 13)	Decreasing	0.6 (0.3 – 0.9)	-5.8 (-69 – -3)
United States of America	22197 (21101 – 23329)	Likely increasing	1 (1 – 1)	220 (92 – -760)
Uzbekistan	67 (47 – 80)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	21 (8.5 – -39)
Venezuela	65 (46 – 81)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.3)	150 (12 – -15)
Zambia	35 (24 – 45)	Unsure	1 (0.7 – 1.2)	-95 (11 – -8.9)
Zimbabwe	16 (8 – 23)	Increasing	1.9 (1.2 – 2.7)	3.6 (2.1 – 14)