Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-05-29

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-05-19) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-05-19 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-19 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-19 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-19 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-19 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-19)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-19) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan 667 (602 – 738) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (10 – 21)
Algeria 187 (162 – 211) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 740 (23 – -26)
Argentina 700 (637 – 763) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 11 (8.4 – 16)
Armenia 356 (324 – 394) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 21 (12 – 66)
Australia 13 (6 – 21) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.5) 180 (5.3 – -5.7)
Austria 36 (22 – 45) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.2) -35 (16 – -8.4)
Azerbaijan 139 (116 – 157) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 50 (15 – -36)
Bahrain 241 (205 – 269) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -41 (83 – -16)
Bangladesh 1745 (1609 – 1861) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 22 (16 – 34)
Belarus 1001 (911 – 1086) Increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 59 (28 – -580)
Belgium 239 (206 – 269) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -50 (60 – -17)
Benin 19 (8 – 29) Increasing 1.6 (0.9 – 2.2) 4 (2.3 – 16)
Bolivia 430 (395 – 469) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (10 – 26)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 16 (7 – 24) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.3) -30 (8.9 – -5.6)
Brazil 18263 (17230 – 19309) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 25 (20 – 31)
Bulgaria 24 (13 – 32) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1.1) -13 (29 – -5.3)
Cameroon 219 (185 – 251) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 26 (12 – -110)
Canada 1112 (1024 – 1194) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 190 (43 – -80)
Central African Republic 45 (30 – 57) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 18 (6.7 – -25)
Chad 25 (13 – 34) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -72 (9.2 – -7.6)
Chile 4420 (4102 – 4766) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (12 – 17)
China 6 (1 – 10) Unsure 1.1 (0.5 – 1.6) -280 (4.3 – -4.2)
Colombia 1004 (904 – 1107) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (12 – 23)
Cote dIvoire 53 (37 – 64) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 26 (8.4 – -23)
Croatia 8 (1 – 16) Unsure 1.2 (0.4 – 2.1) 12 (2.5 – -4.3)
Cuba 14 (6 – 22) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.5) 30 (4.9 – -7.2)
Czechia 56 (39 – 70) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) -68 (16 – -11)
Democratic Republic of the Congo 124 (101 – 143) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 23 (10 – -110)
Denmark 56 (42 – 70) Unsure 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -87 (16 – -11)
Djibouti 119 (99 – 139) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 41 (12 – -26)
Dominican Republic 360 (311 – 405) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 45 (18 – -90)
Ecuador 510 (457 – 559) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -45 (190 – -21)
Egypt 835 (760 – 919) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (12 – 25)
El Salvador 77 (57 – 94) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 53 (12 – -21)
Equatorial Guinea 61 (45 – 74) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.5) 13 (6.4 – -390)
Estonia 10 (4 – 16) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.7) 16 (3.7 – -7.1)
Ethiopia 57 (39 – 74) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.7) 8.1 (4.6 – 31)
Finland 36 (24 – 46) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -22 (20 – -7.2)
France 294 (256 – 327) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 0.9) -21 (-63 – -13)
Gabon 113 (90 – 131) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 20 (9.3 – -140)
Germany 459 (418 – 505) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -28 (-91 – -16)
Ghana 154 (129 – 175) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 37 (14 – -52)
Greece 10 (3 – 16) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.5) -81 (5.2 – -4.6)
Guatemala 263 (231 – 296) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (8.7 – 34)
Guinea 74 (56 – 89) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -110 (17 – -13)
Guinea Bissau 26 (9 – 41) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.3) -56 (7.9 – -6.2)
Haiti 102 (80 – 119) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 15 (7.8 – 100)
Honduras 223 (196 – 249) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 15 (9.2 – 47)
Hungary 27 (15 – 36) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -22 (16 – -6.5)
Iceland 7 (0 – 16) Likely increasing 2.5 (0.3 – 4.5) 2.4 (0.99 – -4.6)
India 7032 (6560 – 7548) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 18 (16 – 22)
Indonesia 679 (619 – 738) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 31 (18 – 110)
Iran 2224 (2054 – 2359) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 50 (30 – 140)
Iraq 209 (181 – 232) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 12 (7.7 – 26)
Ireland 71 (53 – 86) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1) -16 (80 – -7.4)
Israel 22 (12 – 30) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 17 (5.2 – -13)
Italy 568 (516 – 620) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -32 (-140 – -18)
Japan 32 (21 – 41) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1) -18 (28 – -6.7)
Kazakhstan 327 (287 – 354) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 40 (17 – -120)
Kenya 66 (49 – 80) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 19 (7.9 – -49)
Kosovo 11 (3 – 18) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.6) 43 (4.7 – -5.9)
Kuwait 842 (773 – 904) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -100 (100 – -35)
Kyrgyzstan 45 (31 – 56) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 23 (7.4 – -23)
Latvia 9 (2 – 16) Unsure 1.1 (0.5 – 1.6) 91 (4.1 – -4.5)
Lebanon 25 (13 – 34) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 31 (6.7 – -12)
Lithuania 13 (6 – 21) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.5) 42 (5 – -6.6)
Luxembourg 7 (1 – 13) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.5) -26 (5.3 – -3.7)
Madagascar 38 (24 – 50) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 16 (6.1 – -26)
Malaysia 105 (75 – 129) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.6) 7.3 (4.8 – 15)
Maldives 43 (29 – 57) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 29 (7.6 – -17)
Mexico 3267 (2984 – 3485) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 18 (15 – 24)
Moldova 143 (119 – 162) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -71 (33 – -17)
Mongolia 6 (1 – 11) Unsure 1.1 (0.3 – 2) -28 (3 – -2.4)
Morocco 68 (48 – 85) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -22 (43 – -8.6)
Nepal 69 (51 – 82) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 10 (5.9 – 43)
Netherlands 198 (168 – 226) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 37 (15 – -60)
New Zealand 7 (0 – 15) Likely increasing 2.1 (0.6 – 3.6) 3.2 (1.3 – -6.5)
Niger 10 (1 – 17) Unsure 1.1 (0.5 – 1.7) 36 (3.6 – -4.7)
Nigeria 292 (257 – 320) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 48 (18 – -78)
North Macedonia 28 (15 – 37) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 72 (8 – -9.5)
Norway 20 (10 – 29) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 25 (5.5 – -9.9)
Oman 314 (277 – 347) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 160 (24 – -34)
Pakistan 1957 (1844 – 2090) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 56 (31 – 290)
Palestine 6 (0 – 11) Unsure 1.1 (0.5 – 1.7) 62 (3.8 – -4.5)
Panama 276 (233 – 313) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 10 (7.3 – 18)
Paraguay 12 (4 – 18) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.4) -190 (5.7 – -5.4)
Peru 5009 (4622 – 5463) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 21 (17 – 28)
Philippines 296 (250 – 338) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 19 (11 – 60)
Poland 422 (378 – 471) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 30 (16 – 220)
Portugal 246 (212 – 278) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 44 (17 – -73)
Puerto Rico 77 (59 – 92) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 100 (13 – -18)
Qatar 1816 (1662 – 1955) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.1) 28 (20 – 49)
Romania 189 (160 – 217) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 150 (20 – -27)
Russia 9504 (8929 – 10106) Increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 100 (52 – -4400)
Saudi Arabia 2423 (2273 – 2572) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) -2500 (85 – -79)
Senegal 74 (58 – 90) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -47 (25 – -12)
Serbia 64 (48 – 77) Unsure 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -43 (21 – -11)
Sierra Leone 36 (22 – 47) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 19 (6.3 – -20)
Singapore 533 (484 – 583) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 640 (35 – -39)
Slovakia 7 (0 – 14) Unsure 1.4 (0.5 – 2.4) 8.2 (2.1 – -4.4)
Somalia 32 (20 – 44) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -19 (19 – -6.3)
South Africa 1205 (1103 – 1313) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 19 (14 – 29)
South Korea 37 (24 – 48) Likely increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.6) 9.2 (4.6 – -1600)
South Sudan 85 (66 – 100) Increasing 1.5 (1.2 – 1.8) 5.4 (3.7 – 9.4)
Spain 650 (591 – 706) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 36 (19 – 250)
Sri Lanka 74 (56 – 90) Increasing 1.5 (1.2 – 1.8) 5.5 (3.8 – 10)
Sudan 173 (145 – 196) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -970 (22 – -21)
Sweden 542 (487 – 594) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 50 (22 – -180)
Switzerland 16 (8 – 23) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1) -9.4 (56 – -4.3)
Tajikistan 218 (188 – 245) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 19 (11 – 99)
Thailand 5 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.4 (0.5 – 2.3) 7.4 (2.1 – -5.2)
Tunisia 6 (0 – 12) Likely increasing 1.6 (0.5 – 2.7) 5 (1.8 – -5.5)
Turkey 927 (854 – 997) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 0.9) -20 (-35 – -14)
Ukraine 336 (296 – 372) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -42 (170 – -19)
United Arab Emirates 912 (840 – 995) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 40 (23 – 180)
United Kingdom 2772 (2578 – 3018) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 180 (35 – -54)
United Republic of Tanzania 8 (2 – 13) Decreasing 0.6 (0.3 – 0.9) -5.8 (-69 – -3)
United States of America 22197 (21101 – 23329) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1) 220 (92 – -760)
Uzbekistan 67 (47 – 80) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 21 (8.5 – -39)
Venezuela 65 (46 – 81) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 150 (12 – -15)
Zambia 35 (24 – 45) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.2) -95 (11 – -8.9)
Zimbabwe 16 (8 – 23) Increasing 1.9 (1.2 – 2.7) 3.6 (2.1 – 14)